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From: Ens, Amand
Sent: 12/9/2016 3:46:19 PM
To: jeffrey E. [jeeyacation@gmail.com]; Rich Kahn
Subject: RE: Financials: buy XLF call spreads
Attachments: image001.png
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Importance: High
We continue to see further upside in financials.
• Erika Najarian, BAML financials research analyst, just returned from a marketing trip. Bottom line: North
American investors are very bullish the banks (long only AND hedge funds AND macro funds), but then conclude "I don't
own enough". Note that high touch flows have slowed down significantly since Thanksgiving and where the buying has
been concentrated in XLF (every client sector we have has been a better buyer of XLF).
• Client focus:
1) Regulation: Excitement, with the base case that it's not getting worse.
2) Sentiment on rates: Cautiously bullish
3) Sentiment on growth: Also bullish
4) Sentiment on corporate tax rate cuts: buyside more bullish than sellside. In 1986, bank stocks exploded upward
(outperforming the S&P) after Reagan's tax reform bill passed the Senate; and 2) in 2003, the last time we saw personal
tax cuts, loan growth industry wide accelerated in 2003 and 2004.
• Biggest Pushback on owning sector at current levels: Too far too fast: BKX +18.00% post election: Valuation
coming into question and 04 has typically been a seasonally weak qtr. Bulls defend valuation on '18ests with potential
upside to 2018 [PS from —25-40% and stocks still cheap vs. discretionary.
• Price action and sentiment keeps us constructive, we like the long and would expect US financials to benefit
from any beta chase into year end.
• How to play it? We still like "appearing" call spreads on XLF
o Buy a 6 month 105% call with a short 110% call that knock in if XLF trades above 115% during the life of the
trade for 1.75% premium cost
• Gross max payoff if knock-in is triggered: 2.8x (5.0%/1.75%)
• Gross max payoff if knock-in is not triggered: 5.6x (9.9%/1.75%) — you have upside up to 114.9%
Regards,
Amanda
Amanda Ens
Director Global Equities
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
One Bryant Park 15th Floor New York, NY 10036
Phone: Mobile
From: Ens, Amanda
Sent: Tuesday, November 22, 2016 2:15 PM
To: 'jeffrey E.'; Rich Kahn
Subject: Financials: buy XLF call spreads
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Underweight positioning, buybacks resuming, positive momentum and strong fundamentals all indicate that there is still
further upside potential in financials (more details below). Our financials sector specialist thinks XLF could have another
20-25% upside given the many levers to the Trump Trade: less regulation, higher interest rates, higher vol, economic
growth, loan growth, etc. The asset sensitive regional banks are more of a pure play on a rates move but we view the
larger cap banks as having multi-pronged upside given the aforementioned points.
That said, given the velocity and magnitude of the recent move and uncertainty around the impact and timing of
Trump's policies, we believe options offer better risk-reward than being outright long financials stocks here. With flat
call skew, "appearing" call spreads with upside knock-ins price well.
Buy a 1 year XLF call spread for 2.6% premium
• Buy a 110% call
• Sell a 117.5% call with an at-expiry knock-in at 125% (call is not active unless XLF is 125% or higher at expiry)
o Total premium is 2.6%
o Gross max payoff if knock-in is triggered: 2.9x (7.5%/2.6%)
o Gross max payoff if knock-in is not triggered: 5.7x (14.9%/2.6%) — you have upside up to 124.9%
Post Election Flow Skews - Buyers of Health Care (via ETFs) and Financials (mainly ETFs)
• US Buyback Flows
• Cons Disc, Technology and Financials are the largest 3 sectors for US buybacks (over 70% of execution). We
are seeing a seasonal increase in buybacks as we come out of the low seasonal month of the year (October) and should
see increased buyback executions until year-end, another source of upside for the Cons Disc, Technology and Financials
sectors.
Global Positioning, Nigel Tupper, 11/14. Large long-only funds are more underweight Financials than any other sector
and are UW this sector in all regions.
Future of Financials conference hosted 90 public and private companies at our Future of Financials conference. We are
raising our price objectives across most of our names. Three primary reasons why we think there is upside remaining
after the recent rally: 1) an improved outlook on both activity levels and interest rates, driving revenue upside; 2)
potentially lower regulatory burden, particularly as new supervisory leadership can come with the new administration;
and 3) relatively lighter positioning in US financials vs. other sectors. (Erika Najarian)
Trades Gaining Momentum: Finance-Related Assets vs. S&P 500
In the period since the US presidential election, the three top-performing S&P sectors and industry groups have all been
finance-related (Banks, Financials, Diversified Financials)
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Source: Kensho Technologies
The Flow Show, Michael Hartnett, 11/18. Violent rotation: record equity ETF inflow, record financials inflow, biggest
bond outflow in 3.5 yrs, record EM debt outflow.
Regards,
Amanda
Amanda Ens
Director 1 Global Equities
Bank of America Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch, Pierce, Fenner & Smith Incorporated
One Bryant Park 5th Floor New York NY 10036
Phone: Mobile:
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