File 030856

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From: Daniel Sabba I
Sent: 1/9/2015 1:53:22 AM
To: Jeffrey Epstein [jeeyacation@gmail.com]
Subject: Fw: EOD Commodities Note - 8 Jan [C]
Attachments: image001.jpg; image002.png
Importance: High
Classification: Confidential
Vol in crude continues to collapse
From: Prateek Jain
Sent: 01/08/2015 09:15 PM GMT
Subject: EOD Commodities Note - 8 Jan
Oil
A relatively quiet day in Crude today. We hovered around unchanged for most of the day before selling off in the
afternoon and testing 50$ BRE again. However, we failed to break it and rallied towards unchanged for the close,
perhaps off the back of some index buying. Newswise, Feb Azeri BTC loadings will be up a whopping 11% m/o/m to
821kbd. Interestingly, there is apparently some floating storage interest happening as well, as some major phys trading
firms have booked long term tankers for this as long term charter rates are cheaper and thus make the economics of
storage look good. The window was again weak with ekofisk and brent offered down a bit. In other news, RTRS cites GCC
"sources" saying that there is no chance of OPEC cut even though oil has dipped to 50$...Stateside, we learned yesterday
that the Seaway Twin is moving 100% heavy crude. Furthermore, USGC diffs weakened again, with LLS now trading 1$
above WTI. In the morning WTI spreads were quite bid, but that abated towards the end of the day. The arb did
however stay bid throughout the day, as the fact that LLS/WTI is tight at 1$ means that there is more room BRE to
discount vs LLS so as to place those Jan and Feb overhang cargoes in the US. In politics land, the Senate committee voted
13-9 to have Keystone "bypass" presidential approval. So if the Senate passes this bill (which it should as it has 60 co
sponsors), Obama may have to veto it. It is not clear that the Senate has 67 votes needed to overturn the veto, so this
should be interesting to follow...In products land, distillate bounced back a bit after yesterday's post stats ugly showing,
perhaps off the realization that the stats didn't add up along with the extremely cold weather giving NG a (rare) bid as
well...
Oil Vols
Another day of carnage in oil vols today. Early morning NY vols were down 0.4-0.5 through the curve, but a one way
selling streak started just before the open and all the bids out there started getting hit. As an example Dec5 atm
straddles started the day 1465/1505, were 1405/1450 at 9am, and were 1350/1390 later in the day. Within 2 hours of
open, vols were down about 3 vols across the curve..and stayed there for most of the day till about 1:30pm when
futures took a quick leg lower., prompt vols traded 1.5% higher than close at that time and Jun5 was up 2% from the
lows. However, with a quick rally back vols started fading again and ended 1.5-2.5 lower.
Wings got smashed again and put skew collapsed quickly. 8000 lots of $40puts in WTI Mar15 were sold on the screen,
which is quite an impressive volume outside floor trading..
WTI (/change)   BRE (/change)
G15   50.40%   -1.60%   44.00%   -2.60%
H15   45.50%   -2.40%   43.70%   -1.10%
M15   41.40%   -2.10%   38.20%   -2.60%
Z15   35.15%   -1.60%   33.10%   -2.15%
Z16   28.60%   -2.00%   28.50%   -1.80%
Index
No rhyme or reason to flat price action today.
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Energy up, precious down, ags down, softs up, base mixed.
Contributing to the choppy action was day one the SPGS and BCOM index rebalance and it was quite choppy during the
closing bell.
Estimated rebalance numbers are next to today's performance grid. Only 4 more days to go......Sean Kemery
+ NGG5   .2.949   +.07S   +2.
+ CLHS   149.33
+ COHS   -.27%
+ XBG5   1133.98   +.22
+ HOGS   1170.50   +.5:   +..1)%
+ QSG5 precious   1490.00   +5.00   +1.111%
+ GCG5   1   -.26%
+ SIHS   -1.26%
+ PLF5 grams
+ KWH5   -1.98%
+ W HS   -2.16%
+ C HS   -.50%
+ S H5   -.76%
+ SMHS   1.1.92%
+ BONS meats   s33.76   -.6n   +1.01%
+ LOS   &1.82%
+ FCHS   11;1.83%
+ LH35 softs   161.92%
+ CTRS   s60.56   +.13   +.22%
+ SBH5   s14.88   +.10   +.(4%
+ KCHS   s176.90   +1.85   +%
+ CCHS base   s2986   +74   +2.illt
+ HGHS   1276.95   +1.10   +.41Yi
ILMCADS03   -.18$
LMAHDS03   s1832.00   +42.00   +2.110
LMNIDS03   s15550.00
LMZSDS03   s2160.00   +27.00   +API
Commodity   Total 14,801
WT1Crude
Brent Crude   46,197
Heating Oil ULSD   6,713
Unleaded Gas RBOB   12,303
Natural Gas   18,340
Gas Oil   (13,566)
Aluminum ( primary )   (16,404)
Copper LME   393
Copper CME   (305)
Nickel   (4,213)
Zinc   (6,504)
Lead   484
Gold   (7,599)
Silver   2,671 _
Wheat   (10,993)
Wheat(HRW- Hard red i.vinter)   (2,921)
Cocoa   204
Coffee 'C'   (17,223)
Corn   118,6251
Cotton No.2   4,515
Soybean   5,065
Sugar   (8,1651
Soy Meal   1,917
Soy Oil   (2,2281
Feeder Cattle   1,064
Live Cattle   (14,602)
bean Hog   (2,759)
Base Metals   dod change   support   resistance
3m Ivls
Al $1832   +$42   $1800   $1900
Cu $6101   -$11   $6000   $6200
Zn $2160   +$27   $2125   $2200
Ni $15,550   +$0   $15,000   $15,650
Pb $1851   +$1   $1830   $1900
The base complex was up in the morning, with most metals rallying around 12:30, retracing in the afternoon then
rallying to the close. Gains in stock markets, Fed confidence in the US economy and the increasing likelihood of
aggressive stimulus in Europe are holding up the complex, but the re-wieghting of commodity indexes is likely to result
in a sell off in Nickel Ali and Zinc between 8-14 Jan. Aluminium prices recovered as shorts were covered. Commerzbank
expects to see a further rebound in coming days.Copper prices are suffering due to the sell off in the energy
HOUSE OVERSIGHT 030857
market. Nitaxis sees the Chinese Stare Reserve Bureau cutting its purchases from 600-700 kMT in 2014 to —300 kMT in
2015 as domestic supply catches up with demand. Zinc open interest is looking very high leading Macquarie to suggest
that prices may be going down this quarter.
Shanghai Aluminium on warrant stocks are down 3.52% to 46.9 kMT. LME Aluminium on warrant stocks are flat at
1852.2 kMT. Shanghai Copper on warrant stocks are up 0.97% to 31.1 kMT. LME Copper stocks are up 0.67% to 155.1
kMT. LME Nickel stocks are down 1.21% to 324.4 kMT.
Copper Vols are up 0.28% in the front, Ali Vols unch, Nickel Vols are unch in the front, up 0.27% in the back, Lead and
Zinc Vols unch
Upcoming Data
8/1- EC Consumer Confidence-Sury -10.9, Actual -10.9, Prior -10.9
8/1- US Initial Jobless Claims-Sury 290k, Actual 294k, Prior 298k
Regards,
Prateek
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