File 030861
Deutsche Bank Commodities Market Analysis Email - March 31, 2015 (File 030861)
Internal Deutsche Bank email forwarding a commodities market analysis covering oil, metals, and economic indicators dated March 31, 2015, with discussion of Iran nuclear negotiations and global market movements.
Summary
This email chain includes a Deutsche Bank commodities analyst (Prateek Jain) report analyzing oil market volatility tied to Iran nuclear talks, metal prices including copper and nickel market pressures from Chinese policy and supply changes, and upcoming economic data releases. The analysis references President Obama's Iran deal negotiations and their potential market impact, along with geopolitical factors including Nigerian elections and Yemen/Saudi Arabian conflicts affecting shipping routes.
From: Daniel SabbaSent: 3/31/2015 8:06:56 PMTo: jeffrey E. [jeeyacation@gmail.com]CC: Vahe StepanianSubject: FW: EOD Commodities Note - 31 MarImportance: HighFrom: Prateek JainSent: Tuesday, March 31, 2015 4:06 PMSubject: EOD Commodities Note - 31 MarAriane DwyerOILAll eyes on Iran talks today which were extended by a day into Wednesday. Earlier in the day, a US official suggestedthat negotiation may continue another day past deadline if 'it's useful to do so'. Another Russian official commentedthat a deal was 'closer and closer'. This optimism about an agreement, at least on some points, weighed heavily on oiltoday with Brent dropping 2.5%. In my opinion, even if the talks end positively with agreement on key points, the dealhas been softened enough compared to what was originally sought by President Obama, and is going to face a toughchallenge being approved by a skeptical Congress, which is in fact proposing to impose new sanctions on Iran.Nigeria's elections ended today easing the political tension, with the ex-military ruler Buhari's winning against theincumbent President. In short term, this eased any immediate violence concerns in the country, but this shift in powercan lead to the movement of the Boko Haram violence to southern oil producing region of Nigeria and anydevelopments there need to be carefully watched. In other news, Yemen rebels seized military base at Bab el-Mandeb,overlooking the key shipping route while Saudi-led coalition kept bombing Houthi occupied sites..Vols were stronger with wings being bought aggressively today as oil can move quickly away from current levelsdepending on Iran deal outcome.. overall vols gained about 1% across the curveWTI (/change) BRE (/change)K15 52.50% +1.45% 51.10% +1.05%M15 51.20% +2.10% 47.90% +0.90%Z15 37.10% +1.00% 35.15% +0.70%Z16 26.20% +0.10% 26.40% +0.55%Metals3m Ivls dod change support resistanceAl $1785 -$12.5 $1750 $1800Cu $6041 -$41 $6000 $6300Zn $2081 -$28 $2000 $2100Ni $12,395 -$485 $12,000 $13,000Pb $1820 -$5 $1800 $1900The base complex traded down in the morning then picked up on improving customer confidence only to crash off againat close. China has reduced the deposits required from home buyers for the second time in 6 months in an attempt toboost sliding house prices, which should have knock on effects in the copper and nickel markets. Nickel continues itsslide as CTA funds have sold off heavily on the supply crunch failing to materialize and demand from the stainless steelmarket evaporating. Nickel ore supplies are also returning from the Philippines as the rainy season ends, adding furthersupply pressure. Chinese NPI producers are cutting production, selling stocks or attempting to secure loans on the backof stocks in warehouses. Rio Tinto have resolved the their tax dispute with the Mongolian government over the OyuTolgoi copper mine but financing still needs to be negotiated over phase ll of the development there. Zambia's MiningHOUSE OVERSIGHT 030861and finance ministers have indicated that they may consider temporarily reverting to the old tax regime or making dealson a mine by mine basis as the IMF applaud their efforts to compromise and encouraged them to implement atransparent system that applies to all mines. Vietnam is expected to increase its aluminia output by 20% to650kMT/year as its first plant reaches full capacity this month.Shanghai Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 108.1 kMT. LME Aluminum on warrant stocks are flat at 1888kMT Shanghai Copper on warrant stocks are flat at 86.7 kMT. LME Copper stocks are up 0.11% to 252 kMT. LME Nickelstocks are up 0.41% to 332 kMT.Copper Vols are down 0.5%, Ali Vols are down 0.25%, Nickel Vols are up 1%, Lead Vols are unch Zinc Vols are unchUpcoming Data30/3-Chicago PMI-Sury 51.7%, Actual 46.3%, Prior 45.8%30/3-US Consumer Confidence Index -Sury 96.4, Actual 101.3, Prior 96.4Regards,PrateekPlease access the link for disclaimer:http://globalmarkets.db.com/new/content/3045.htmlDeutsche Bank External Business Conduct Standards can be found atwww.DB.com/doddfrankThis communication may contain confidential and/or privileged information. If you are not the intendedrecipient (or have received this communication in error) please notify the sender immediately anddestroy this communication. Any unauthorized copying, disclosure or distribution of the material inthis communication is strictly forbidden.Deutsche Bank does not render legal or tax advice, and the information contained in thiscommunication should not be regarded as such.HOUSE OVERSIGHT 030862