File 020443
Email: Steve Bannon's "Trump at War" Film and Midterm Strategy (File 020443)
August 2018 email forwarding a Wall Street Journal article by Gerald F. Seib analyzing Steve Bannon's political documentary "Trump at War" and Republican midterm election strategy centered on impeachment fears.
Summary
Steve Bannon forwarded a WSJ article to Jeffrey Epstein discussing Bannon's documentary film "Trump at War," which was produced to energize Trump voters before the 2018 midterms. The article, written by Gerald F. Seib, analyzes Bannon's political strategy of using impeachment fears to motivate both the Trump base and moderate Republicans. The strategy relies on dual messaging: appealing to core Trump supporters through anti-establishment rhetoric and immigration hardlines, while attracting mainstream Republicans through economic and tax policy benefits. The email includes the full WSJ article detailing polling data on independent voters, Republican divisions between core Trump backers and moderate "RINOs," and advertising patterns showing pro-Trump messages as the most common element in GOP political ads.
From:Sent:To:Subject:Steve Bannon8/27/2018 6:11:26 PMjeffrey E. [jeevacation@gmail.com]Fw: The `Deplorables' Called Into Battle Again - WSJImportance: HighSent via BlackBerry by AT&TFrom: Alexandra Preate <1,1E=>Date: Mon, 27 Aug 2018 10:37:29 -0400To: Steve Bannon<1____________________Subject: The `Deplorables' Called Into Battle Again - WSJhttps://www.wsj.com/articles/the-deplorables-called-into-battle-aoain-1535376353?mod=mhpThe `Deplorables' Called Into Battle AgainAs midterms near, President Trump's former political guru Steve Bannon rallies thetroopsGerald F. SeibAug. 27, 2018 9:25 a.m. ETByGerald F. SeibSteve Bannon doesn't do subtle. So it's no surprise that there's nothing subtle about the new movie President Trump'sonetime political guru has produced to energize the Trump base for this year's midterm elections.It's entitled "Trump at War," and it's an hour and 15 minutes of pure Trumpian adrenaline. It opens with a series of shotsof Trump supporters being attacked by angry opponents, shifts to outtakes of Trump supporters proudly accepting the"deplorables" label bestowed by Hillary Clinton during the 2016 presidential campaign, runs through a long series ofangry ripostes at Trump detractors and praise of administration policy moves, and closes with dire warnings of the need tovote for Republicans in 2018 to head off efforts by liberals to impeach the president.Mr. Bannon previewed the film for some Republican supporters in Dallas recently, but the big premiere is scheduled forSept. 9—chosen because it is the second anniversary of the speech in which Mrs. Clinton used the "basket of deplorables"phrase. The location? The very club in Manhattan where Mrs. Clinton made the speech, which has been rented for theoccasion.Aside from what they say about Mr. Bannon as a political provocateur, the film and its unveiling also reveal a lot abouthow people in the president's circle increasingly see this year's midterm election: Its importance is growing every day;Republican success starts with turning out core Trump supporters; and the best way to motivate them is by brandishing thefear of impeachment proceedings if Democrats win control of Congress.HOUSE OVERSIGHT 020443Steve Bannon believes the specter of impeachment will motivate mainstream Republicans as well as core Trumpbackers. Photo: J. Scott Applewhite/Associated Press"This is all grass roots," Mr. Bannon says. "It's 2016 all over again...This is Trump's first re-election."The political calculus behind such thinking is pretty simple: In 19 months as president, Mr. Trump has hardened his gripon his base of supporters and the GOP overall, but has done little to expand that base.Meanwhile, as the Labor Day kickoff of the fall campaign approaches, Republicans face a Democratic party whoseactivists appear exceptionally motivated—to campaign, donate money and turn out in November.Republicans need something to match that fervor. That something is the Trump base—and the best motivating tools areanger and fear.In this case, that means specifically the fear that Special Counsel Robert Mueller, New York prosecutors and aDemocratic Congress will conspire to kick Mr. Trump out of office. That's why Republicans are talking about the specterof impeachment, not Democrats. Democrats know impeachment talk is a surefire way to motivate the other side.But there's a problem in this GOP formula: A motivated Trump base is necessary for Republicans to head off disaster inNovember, but it's not sufficient, at least not if Democrats remain as energized as they appear today. The Trump base hasto be married with more mainstream Republicans—the kind hardcore activists refer to as RIN0s, or "Republicans InName Only"—and with some independent voters.Right now, independent voters are hard to read. Their sentiments have been shifting around a lot in Wall StreetJournal/NBC News polling in recent months. As a general rule, they have a low regard for Mr. Trump personally andappear weary of the atmosphere of constant crisis around him. But the polling also indicates they increasingly like howRepublicans are handling the economy, appreciate the GOP tax cut and think the party is changing the way things work inWashington.That leaves moderate Republicans, of whom Mr. Bannon says simply: "We need RINOs."=,==Supporters of President Trump cheer before a rally in Lewis Center, Ohio, earlier this month. Photo: CarolynKaster/Associated PressThe Bannon calculation is that the specter of impeachment will motivate these soft Republicans as well as core Trumpbackers. More conventional Republicans may be disdainful of Mr. Trump personally, but they also think the tax cuts,deregulatory policies and judicial nominations they like are imperiled if he goes down.So, impeachment-scare talk, Mr. Bannon is calculating, is effective for RINOS too, simply for different reasons. For theTrump base, impeachment talk is a source of outrage. Soft Republicans dislike it for less emotional, more practicalreasons.All this means Republican candidates have a dual mission right now: Keep motivating those base Trump voters, who wantfull-throated defenses of the president and odes to his hard-line immigration policies, while also luring out to the pollsmainstream Republicans and independents who dislike the president but like lower taxes and less regulation.HOUSE OVERSIGHT 020444And if political advertising is any indication, candidates appear to be embracing both messages with nearly equal fervor.Data compiled by CMAG Kantar Media on all political ads run so far this year show that a pro-Trump message is themost common element of GOP ads. Next in line? Mentions of the tax cut Republicans pushed through Congress last year.Write to Gerald F. Seib at jerry.seib@wsj.comAlexandra V. PreateChief Executive OfficerCapitalHQThe information transmitted in this email (including any attachments) is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed,and may contain non-public, proprietary, confidential and/or privileged material. If you are not the intended recipient, you are herebynotified that any use, dissemination, distribution, or copying of this communication is strictly prohibited. If you have receivedthis communication in error, please destroy all copies of this message and any attachments from your system. Thank you.HOUSE OVERSIGHT 020445