File 026304
Email Discussion on Third-Party Presidential Candidate Strategy (File 026304)
August 2018 email exchange between Steve Bannon and Jeffrey E. discussing strategy for launching a third-party presidential candidate for 2020, with mentions of potential candidates including Bill Gates, Michael Bloomberg, and others as alternatives to Donald Trump.
Summary
This is a substantive email exchange from August 3, 2018, in which Steve Bannon and Jeffrey E. discuss the viability and strategy of launching a third-party presidential candidate for the 2020 election as a response to perceived failures of both major political parties. The sender outlines five specific characteristics of an ideal third-party candidate, including name recognition, centrist positioning, entertainment value, a four-year service pledge, and commitment to streamlining Congressional governance. Bill Gates is mentioned as a potential running mate with Maryland Governor Larry Hogan in a hypothetical centrist ticket. The discussion emphasizes ballot access challenges, electoral mathematics targeting swing states and blue states, and the role of media savviness in modern campaigns.
Date: Friday, August 3 2018 12:18 PMSubject: Re: Exclusive: Bannon blasts 'con artist' Kochs, 'lame duck' Ryan, 'diminished' Kelly I TheHillFrom: Steve BannonTo: jeffrey E. <jeevacation@gmail.com>;Where is this from???On Aug 3, 2018, at 8:17 AM, jeffrey E. <jeevacation@gmail.com> wrote:keep close !This much we know - the Fall elections are shaping up to be a referendum on the most divisiveAmerican President in memory. The battle for potential Supreme Court justice Brett Kavanaugh'snomination this fall will only amplify the polarity of the political debate that is already deeplyoverwrought on both sides. The rising tide of pressure on Donald Trump from the Mueller investigationshows no sign of ebbing.Unless the underlying political dynamics are disrupted, the outcomes of these unprecedented events willstill leave us with the same unsatisfactory two front battlefield of the 2016 Presidential election.Watching these unrelenting, compounding events since our discussion in May, I am guessing we are allasking the same question: now what? For the 48 percent of Americans who believe Donald Trumpshould not be in the White House, perhaps we too want our own "chaos" candidate in 2020?Should Trump run again, this could be a "break glass" moment for the majority of Americans who don'tsupport him. Do we want to break the genteel precedents of two parties running their ceremonious andseemingly illogical nominating process to select a candidate? (Why do Iowa and New Hampshire playsuch outsized roles? What kind of small-d democratic process relies on superdelegates?) The systemfailed in 2016, with both parties producing terribly flawed candidates in a race to the bottom. We need tobuild a back-up plan in the event the system fails again.It's possible, of course, that we won't need a third-party candidate. Trump could decide not to run forHOUSE OVERSIGHT 026304whatever reason. The Democrats could nominate a winning 2020 candidate. I am not willing to takethose bets.The ideal candidate for a new third party is someone who is widely perceived to be that rare combinationof both good and great. We are looking for a proven leader of men and women, someone with clear,democratic — and moral — values that reflect the best of America, not our worst. We know people like thison the national stage now.As a thought experiment, consider the possibilities of a ticket outside the partisan lanes and imagine thechemistry of radical combinations: Biden/Romney? Bill Gates/Hogan? Bloomberg/Haley? HowardSchultz/Bob Corker? Sandberg/Kasich?As we have discussed narrow path to electing the first president outside the two major party primarysystem in 168 years is more navigable than most think. Heading into 2020, converging trends inAmerican's demands for a third party (a historic high of 61%), disapproval of Donald Trump holdingsteady above 50%, and the increasingly leftward drift of the Democratic Party suggest that electorate maybe susceptible to merits of a new centrist party. Cynics will say that the structural impediments of ballotand presidential debate access, the overwhelming advantages of legacy parties' fundraising and voterturn-out operations preordain failure, but they're wrong; the legal and logistical hurdles are amenable to acombination of lawyering and resources. The bigger, more consequential factors come in terms ofcandidate quality and policy. I believe a candidate with five specific characteristics including a unique —and purposefully non-specific - policy agenda could limbo a win.• This is what I think a successful third-party candidate looks like; a dream third party ticket wouldstart off with enough name ID to be an instant contender. Building the name ID to run nationally isjust too long and expensive of a process to accomplish in the 28 months until the next presidentialelection. We can't beat a celebrity without some celebrity of our own, whether from politics,sports, business, or entertainment. Instantaneous name ID is so crucial because the candidate muststart out in striking distance in any three-way poll against Trump and a fill-in-the-blankHOUSE OVERSIGHT 026305Democratic flavor-of-the day candidate. The media and political class will predetermineirrelevance otherwise.• A Democrat-leaning candidate would have to top the ideal third-party ticket. We need someonewith a shot at snaking a plurality of the vote in the blue states Hillary Clinton won (227 electoralvotes), but moderate enough to win a plurality in some combination of Trump states like Florida,Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (another 119 votes). The right candidate may even to putNorth Carolina, Ohio, Indiana in play for a centrist bi-partisan ticket as well (totaling an electoralsweep of 464 elector votes). A right leaning candidate would meet the same fate as a primarychallenger to Trump — for all intents and purposes we need to assume that 36% of voters won't becleaved from Trump under any circumstances and run to win around them. The deep red stateswould be off the table entirely.• With the Trump reality show airing daily, voters are now expecting to take their politics with a sideof entertainment. Heretofore, ratings will matter no matter how dry the policy topic. SurelyStephen Colbert would gladly sacrifice his executive producer Chris Licht to produce a dailycomedic segment of this dream candidate interviewing Americans in truck stops and McDonald'sacross the country. A few of the "Saturday Night Live" script writers could certainly be enticed todisguise serious debates as informative amusement. Any candidate must be committed to a neardaily cadence of high quality, compelling video production. It will be especially crucial to keepthe voters' attention during what will be a raucous Democratic primary season. Rules governingaccess to the general election debate stage dictate that a candidate enjoy support of at least 15% ofvoters in the months leading up to the general election.• This dream candidate would pledge to serve only four years and address all of the U.S.'s tickingtime bombs like Social Security, Medicare, health care reform, climate change, money in politics,gerrymandering, and infrastructure investment in a single term. This one-and-done term decouplesour candidate from the usual politics and gives them the power of promise and deliver decisiveaction. A four-year term pledge ensures governance independent of campaign finance concerns andnarrow special interests inherent to winning re-election. This "fix-it" ticket would promise to forceHOUSE OVERSIGHT 026306decisions on all the underlying structural policy matters damaging America's long-term prospectsand distorting our democracy. No more kicking the can down the road.• This candidate should also pledge to push for laws passed that reflect the will of simple majoritiesin Congress. Congress now only allows bills to move forward when a "majority of a majority"supports the policy and on many levels seems fundamentally broken. This third-party presidentcould force votes based on a transparent reading of where the votes lie via coalition building. TheSenate filibuster power will present a high hurdle, but a third-party candidate would be a de factodisruptor of the two-party system. Party discipline could well break down, and moderates in bothparties could form a powerful, decisive block willing to work with the new President. The policiespassed into law may not be ideal for either Democrats or Republicans, but for the major agendaitems that must be addressed for America's long-term health, an imperfect fix that corrects courseis better than those that now have us hurtling toward national bankruptcy.And if no candidate secures 270 electoral votes in 2020? The House of Representatives would choose thenext president. In 2016, reports suggested Michael Bloomberg declined to run on a third-party ticket forfear of splitting support from Hillary Clinton and throwing the election to a GOP-controlled House ofRepresentatives who would then vote to select the president. The fear was the GOP controlled Housewould have just elected Trump.Would Democratic control of the House mean that the House would pick an alternative to Trump aspresident? Each state delegation has a single vote in selecting a president and it is the incoming Congress- the class elected in 2020 that would decide the election. But no matter which party has the speaker'schair, the GOP would almost certainly have the upper hand in the majority of state delegations controlled.Would the state delegations pick a president based on party majority control of the delegation, thewinner of the popular vote in each state or their own calculations as to who is best for America?Precedent suggests that delegations use secret ballots, which means individual lawmakers may vote theirconsciences.HOUSE OVERSIGHT 026307If we recruit this ideal candidate; threading the needle of name ID, a center-left bent, a TV- savvycampaign team and a pledge to serve only four years with an apartisan agenda, money and campaignexpertise would certainly follow. And 50 state ballot access is a function of time (starting in the fall of2019 would be prudential) and hard work as we have discussed and many of you have exhaustively war-gamed.Part and parcel of this effort would be motivating the often politically lackadaisical middle to vote. Theraft of new technologies in data targeting and biometric mobile voting technology could transform theelectorate in the next few, amping voter participation and injecting the voices of moderates (both inpolitical views and level of political interest) into the process. And any third-party effort mustincorporate advocacy for accelerated adaption of these all but inevitable voter verification tools. I believeSilicon Valley could be game-changing allies in this effort.I am sure none of us doubt that chaos could potentially be unleashed by jamming three viable candidatesinto a two-party system. An election that ends up in the House of Representatives is an uncontrollable,murky and ancient process. But might that be a less scary prospect than relying on the Democrats tonominate a candidate who can beat Trump in 2020?On Fri, Aug 3, 2018 at 8:16 AM, Steve BannonBuried ledeSent via BlackBerry by AT &T> wrote:From: "jeffrey E." <jeevacation(4mail.com >Date: Fri, 3 Aug 2018 08:13:37 -0400To: Steve Bannon<>Subject: Re: Exclusive: Bannon blasts 'con artist' Kochs, 'lame duck' Ryan, 'diminished' Kelly TheHillloved , not donors - but marksOn Fri, Aug 3, 2018 at 7:42 AM, Steve Bannon < > wrote:http://thehill.com/homenews/ad ministration/400188- exclusive- bannon-blasts-con-artist-kochs-lame-duck-ryan-diminishe dHOUSE OVERSIGHT 026308please noteThe information contained in this communication isconfidential, may be attorney-client privileged, mayconstitute inside information, and is intended only forthe use of the addressee. It is the property ofJEEUnauthorized use, disclosure or copying of thiscommunication or any part thereof is strictly prohibitedand may be unlawful. If you have received thiscommunication in error, please notify us immediately byreturn e-mail or by e-mail to jeevacation@gmail.com , anddestroy this communication and all copies thereof,including all attachments. copyright -all rights reservedplease noteThe information contained in this communication isconfidential, may be attorney-client privileged, mayconstitute inside information, and is intended only forthe use of the addressee. It is the property ofJEEUnauthorized use, disclosure or copying of thiscommunication or any part thereof is strictly prohibitedand may be unlawful. If you have received thiscommunication in error, please notify us immediately byreturn e-mail or by e-mail to jeevacation@gmail.com , anddestroy this communication and all copies thereof,including all attachments. copyright -all rights reservedHOUSE OVERSIGHT 026309