File 027777
iMessage Conversation Between Larry Summers and Correspondent - Probability Theory Discussion (File 027777)
iMessage chat thread from June 14-July 5, 2019 between Larry Summers and correspondent discussing probability theory, financial markets, and personal matters including references to an individual referred to as 'peril'.
Summary
This document is an iMessage conversation archive between Larry Summers (e:jeeitunes@gmail.com) and another participant spanning from June 14 to July 5, 2019. The exchange primarily focuses on a detailed debate about probability theory, with Summers arguing against applying probability concepts to one-off events and his correspondent defending subjective probability. The conversation also includes personal references, casual exchanges about location (Paris), attempts to coordinate phone calls, and references to dictating op-eds and strategy discussions regarding someone referred to as 'peril'.
Source Entry: H\Macintosh HD\root\Users\jee\Library\Messages\Archive\2019-07-05\larrySummers on 2019-06-13 at 13.16.44.ichatService: iMessageStart Time: 06/14/19 01:45:35 PM (582237935)End Time: 07/05/19 01:27:01 PM (584051221)Last Message ID: 31810Chat Room:Participants: jee, Larry SummersPresentity IDs: e:jeeitunes@gmail.com,Messages -Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/14/19 01:45:35 PM (582237935)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: F6A49ADE-D7A7-45B6-A2C0-21EFA549A8BBMessage: in paris, weather greatSender:Time: 06/15/19 06:35:48 AM (582298548)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 38066713-F526-4190-8AC8-764528A08BOAMessage: I 11 call bit later. Would u continue to dictating op Ed's for peril? Thinkshe was off w some guy falling in love w Buddhist art? Not sure who or what.Sender:Time: 06/15/19 06:48:40 AM (582299320)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: CA84COAF-AE81-454A-9DB6-4CE8C5A72F07Message: Drake equation probability estimation is garbage in garbage out but this notsame thing as saying concept of a probability is wrong. Do I think meaningful to talkabout prob of trump being re-elected or my getting horizontal w peril which are oneshots.Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/15/19 06:54:47 AM (582299687)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoHOUSE OVERSIGHT 027777GUID: CC1FD992-B400-4122-901D-C9381A8DFB43Message: Cannot use the concept of probability with only one example and not a repeatedspace . Gromov said its a question his children might ask and hopefully only once !Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/15/19 06:56:21 AM (582299781)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 7E3BDC8C-5EB0-471E-A8CD-4C8B42E29146Message: Ill have red ink on my summer s dollar thank you. -It should be a ten as youdid add - with gusto-jeffrey , that is REALLY stupidSender:Time: 06/15/19 06:57:46 AM (582299866)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 5F140C9E-862B-49B2-BD06-60639A071A5CMessage: Don't know Gromov. This is clearly wrong. Soviet doctrinaire sounds like. Do uthink Question of prob that stock market will rise till end of 2019 is meaningless?You have one strong willed authority with achievements in some other sphere. So what.Sender:Time: 06/15/19 06:58:41 AM (582299921)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 98D6ED00-1E04-4E53-A9DC-8169CE4D9872Message: U r better at understanding Chinese women than at probability theory. Atunderstanding movement of money too.Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/15/19 07:07:53 AM (582300473)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: B93C1B4A-E109-491F-8679-CCB455F0C5ODMessage: The stock market models as a contiuous function. With a history and manypast events . More like what is the probability you being reincarnated .Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/15/19 07:09:47 AM (582300587)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoHOUSE OVERSIGHT 027778Is Invitation: NoGUID: FDEEA9DA-EEF5-4BA4-96DF-14D6F4E7285EMessage: Im more concerned that it may be like the probability of you in bed againwith peril. . 0Sender:Time: 06/15/19 07:21:46 AM (582301306)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 483E68C9-192F-4ACE-9A21-9571C845544BMessage: Uh oh. Lhopital s ruleSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/15/19 07:33:00 AM (582301980)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: AllE58FA-FC89-4549-AC92-6F9104243756Message: Not exactly getting within the limit is NOT the same as INSender:Time: 06/15/19 07:34:41 AM (582302081)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: BF86BF72-356F-4488-86FA-10A007F4D403Message: Just calledSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/15/19 07:47:07 AM (582302827)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 72118E11-CDA2-41B5-88CB-4B89300C7C60Message: Try nowSender:___________________Time: 06/15/19 08:26:49 AM (582305209)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: B93ED8FC-2C3C-42A4-9460-2E7A6B5AD836HOUSE OVERSIGHT 027779Message: Just tried backSender:Time: 06/15/19 08:34:09 AM (582305649)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: CA6AD780-021E-479B-AB99-585E0F40ABD7Message: U called but I couldn't hear anythingSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/15/19 12:44:21 PM (582320661)Flags: 1150981Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 8123FEC4-499A-4091-A81A-DA5CB3C7E6DEMessage: https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2019/06/15/us/15reuters-new-jersey-airport.html?action=click&module=Latest&pgtype=HomepageSender:Time: 06/15/19 03:37:15 PM (582331035)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 7AF77F43-6258-4EBC-8EB6-09ACB3C11340Message: Got itSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/15/19 04:54:09 PM (582335649)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: D5847834-B107-44B6-A639-5C38FEE110ABMessage: Subjective probability is a type of probability derived from an individual'spersonal judgment or own experience about whether a specific outcome is likely tooccur. It contains no formal calculations and only reflects the subject's opinions andpast experience rather than on data or computation. Subjective probabilities differfrom person to person and contain a high degree of personal bias.Sender:Time: 06/15/19 05:11:12 PM (582336672)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoHOUSE OVERSIGHT 027780GUID: E93782E1-FOOE-470E-8EA8-5944E5C8AEEBMessage: This is silly.Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/15/19 05:13:45 PM (582336825)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 28EDD23F-F776-4DFC-8BF5-C10EF2FFB997Message: ExactlySender:Time: 06/16/19 07:45:26 AM (582389126)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: E6D323ED-E87A-4055-886B-C3DC71044C6CMessage: Later. In meantime, strategy w peril?Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 07:46:46 AM (582389206)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 0020441A-FB79-47DB-B899-705Al2C6C659Message: Continue to dictate -little downsideSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 07:48:19 AM (582389299)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 9EE6EAC0-3143-409D-9585-F917C3B94803Message: Re later - you can read up on questions -re life on other planets described as" subjective probability " ie . Total nonsenseSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 07:48:35 AM (582389315)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 1F69910C-BE39-45BB-AB77-6F1B32EA5516Message: Red inkHOUSE OVERSIGHT 027781Sender:Time: 06/16/19 07:51:37 AM (582389497)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: E3EC6FAD-5540-4788-AF64-44F27E630B1FMessage: Sounds like u r pessimistic re peril but agree. I think my injury is kind ofexogenous event u said would change game. On other hand life has lots of bounces.Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 07:52:10 AM (582389530)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 2774B3F8-481B-462A-BB3F-59EBA0F7C23FMessage: Not at all. Long gameSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 07:53:30 AM (582389610)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 1C767735-679A-4A23-B2D5-25696C9CB759Message: Im rarely pessimistic, i wonder what the probability is? Or in this case as itis a binary decision appropriate to use " odds"Sender:Time: 06/16/19 07:57:23 AM (582389843)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 318A9F80-A641-481D-8ACF-F85D91C7E327Message: On subjective probability, I think life on other planets complex example. Isstock market one continuous event with much Or is this moment unique. If u grantmeaningfulness if talking odds on one off events we are down to semantics. Where u sayodds I say subjective probability. If u are rarely pessimistic does that discredit youroptimism. Suppose instead of peril it was dunking a basketball or going to an island wAngela JolieSender: __________________Time: 06/16/19 08:04:21 AM (582390261)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoHOUSE OVERSIGHT 027782GUID: 72603E56-0703-400E-B4CC-2E3FE85F627DMessage: ?Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 08:06:22 AM (582390382)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 669FD759-B135-4C2C-AA9B-33783DE756CBMessage: Odds are limited to binary outcomes. . since you are immobile. Do somehomework. . I concede your point on pessimism but would under bayesian rules. Feelcomfortable. As humans are biased toward bad outcome avoidance. . She is never evergoing to find another Larry summers. Probability ZEROSender:Time: 06/16/19 08:16:09 AM (582390969)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: CCD605A6-90D4-484F-A2D8-0269C171FFC3Message: That can't be right. There are odds on dem nominee w many outcomes possible.For objective or subjective probability u need well defined events.Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 12:55:05 PM (582407705)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: FD3E312C-E378-4798-8885-BE441B3BE005Message: When are you able to walk again without crutches. Its wholly impolitefor me to mentally attack a crippleSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 12:57:14 PM (582407834)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 615FEF51-9D4D-4629-B310-A900B300FE7DMessage: Handicapped , not crippleSender:Time: 06/16/19 01:15:31 PM (582408931)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesHOUSE OVERSIGHT 027783Is Invitation: NoGUID: 55C08F2F-4921-429B-8E52-CFA0C94185E8Message: 6 or 7 weeks.Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 01:16:45 PM (582409005)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 9E3C66A8-55B9-4760-B4AF-7970FC0C5BE4Message: On tues. I 11 have the math professor explain to you some things. And thenwait until you are unable to claim your arguments were driven by the high level of painkillers. . on peril. Forced holding pattern in your interestSender:Time: 06/16/19 01:21:58 PM (582409318)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: B1F044A8-CA51-4D8C-B6D8-04615DC230FEMessage: Why in my interest. Odds of success. I think another encounter at some pointone third. Sustained series one fifth. Best shot for me. She gives up on marriage.Finds me invaluable and interesting and get her to conclude she can't have it withoutromance/sex without deciding I'm weak or vengefulSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 01:26:05 PM (582409565)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 0E98C824-A354-4D17-B0E8-984267E20828Message: Over time. She is doomed to be with youSender:Time: 06/16/19 01:27:02 PM (582409622)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: OFE04027-6AAD-48B6-BD4A-6A22E6F76D10Message: Unless she marries someone else. She is more monogamous than mostSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 01:28:22 PM (582409702)Flags: 1085445HOUSE OVERSIGHT 027784Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 8ECC4603-F01F-48BC-9FEB-5A2ACAF4E71EMessage: Painkillers?Sender:Time: 06/16/19 01:47:00 PM (582410820)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: B3872E56-E3F0-4814-A9FA-46920060C108Message: Not for me??Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/16/19 01:47:53 PM (582410873)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 8F38D70D-9002-4745-B48C-DO4C9OACF3E8Message: Your views formed by your meds?Sender:Time: 06/16/19 09:01:18 PM (582436878)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 4ECF37F0-A4AE-4885-A68B-98CFE7DDBEDOMessage: Not formed by meds. Other than being a Bayesian rather than a pure math freakwhich wrong view do I haveSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/17/19 02:21:14 AM (582456074)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 2950BBD5-5155-4457-9BFA-AEAO6DF00685Message: She continues to be in contactSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/17/19 02:22:23 AM (582456143)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoHOUSE OVERSIGHT 027785GUID: 50B6A567-D38D-474B-8B64-6BFF49FC250FMessage: Things are good - davos is set for you / she is there because program personis chineseSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/17/19 02:22:35 AM (582456155)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 33B3A9A3-FC94-453C-AF86-1295DB1E1C48Message: FunnySender:Time: 06/17/19 05:33:18 AM (582467598)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 0A6B17B8-3321-45D7-A89F-F017B93D1EADMessage: Thx re davos. Happy to help re g20Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/23/19 11:09:56 PM (583049396)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: C50180EF-188F-4DAB-ADE5-D39F692B6F86Message: How are youSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/24/19 02:05:02 AM (583059902)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: E6C43F7E-89F8-4F76-9C4D-CA266DE55C32Message: If Bernie were to cancel all student debt. . how Is that reflected on govtbooks/ ?Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/24/19 02:05:13 AM (583059913)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: DE927EA4-90AF-4208-884F-0A4A4618B044HOUSE OVERSIGHT 027786Message: Do the borrowers get income?Sender:Time: 06/24/19 02:20:43 AM (583060843)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: AD8C74A6-F051-46EE-918D-68EC6C523DC2Message: I doubt borrowers get income but not certain. If they did many who struggle wdebt service would get a whopping tax bill. I suspect a balance sheet impact but not adeficit impact. Depends on whether it's framed as a give away or recognition ofreality.Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/24/19 03:34:39 AM (583065279)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 48EA89F5-E85B-4C78-B4DF-E0B69FACF044Message: How's the rehab. ?Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/24/19 03:36:24 AM (583065384)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 3B57FEAA-6429-442D-A7F8-005796E4AD53Message: My mathemactics guys. All said the propensity of the common man to put numberson things where they don't belong is the answer to the odds probability questions et.Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/24/19 03:40:53 AM (583065653)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 31778953-399A-4E04-9369-3450804DDD47Message: Send peril flowersSender:Time: 06/24/19 04:13:47 AM (583067627)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 38694F4C-1706-42EB-BEE4-C30647C04878HOUSE OVERSIGHT 027787Message: Your math guys are not that worldly. I 11 call u laterSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/24/19 09:56:28 AM (583088188)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 80BA418D-D8FA-4C95-AF99-A455AFD5C2D8Message: OkSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/30/19 04:25:52 AM (583586752)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 0152C521-06F9-4B70-87E4-0A5F2B6CE778Message: ?? U ok?Sender:Time: 06/30/19 04:27:03 AM (583586823)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 34975246-52F0-4BED-9DA1-4D227ED75480Message: Yes. Sorry I will update you on developments. Will Ehud Be PMSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/30/19 04:28:53 AM (583586933)Flags: 1150981Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 36171A28-D8BA-45D8-B40E-300F6682DBD5Message: 331 441 70210. Doubtful. But 1. He is not to be underestimated. 2.Unlikely top job. But depends on coalition. 3. Driving me crazySender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/30/19 09:27:53 AM (583604873)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 8858FAEF-7407-42E8-9B54-16B1C044A762Message: ?HOUSE OVERSIGHT 027788Sender:Time: 06/30/19 11:35:11 AM (583612511)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 2B11E6E5-AE97-4B63-B229-9C2321147250Message: Tried backSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/30/19 11:39:15 AM (583612755)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 55ABB821-38D7-41ED-807F-3EDAC529F483Message: I just tried backSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 06/30/19 11:53:56 AM (583613636)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 968D4EA4-D7EA-4FA0-9569-960737DDFD91Message: Try againSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 07/05/19 10:39:45 AM (584041185)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 7D9E5CF8-5797-4B7D-AF38-9675678DAAACMessage: All good?Sender:Time: 07/05/19 10:46:39 AM (584041599)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 8A8FC2E2-375B-4C4E-AEA0-99A3D8E62484Message: At cape w mother brothers kids and nephews nieces. Bit of an Ibsen play.Sender:Time: 07/05/19 10:46:57 AM (584041617)HOUSE OVERSIGHT 027789Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: C174D188-3910-4962-9DC5-FDAD5BA4EE22Message: With perspective all good.Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 07/05/19 10:47:02 AM (584041622)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: B62E8C28-26EB-4B3A-8D33-F9EF4089E61BMessage: Better than checovSender:Time: 07/05/19 10:47:40 AM (584041660)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 09552BA8-0291-4AE6-8605-47934CB6650EMessage: Then I may misunderstand checov.Sender:Time: 07/05/19 10:47:46 AM (584041666)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 812B5A5E-49DA-49AA-81B7-5A24A93E49A5Message: Or IbsenSender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 07/05/19 10:50:07 AM (584041807)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: 2B15A5DE-CE18-4CD2-B85D-4F4B682E5F8AMessage: E. J. Dillon thought "the effect on the reader of Chekhov's tales wasrepulsion at the gallery of human waste represented by his fickle, spineless, driftingpeople"Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 07/05/19 10:54:34 AM (584042074)Flags: 1085445HOUSE OVERSIGHT 027790Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: CA40E43B-C34D-412F-828D-D91149E01E1FMessage: "The Lady with the Dog"[91] (also translated from the Russian as "Lady withLapdog"), [921 which depicts what at first seems a casual liaison between a cynicalmarried man and a woman who meet while holidaying in Yalta. Neither expects anythinglasting from the encounter. Unexpectedly though, they gradually fall deeply in love andend up risking scandal and the security of their family lives. The story masterfullycaptures their feelings for each other, the inner transformation undergone by thedisillusioned male protagonist as a result of falling deeply in love, and theirinability to resolve the matter by either letting go of their families or of eachother. [931Sender:Time: 07/05/19 12:13:27 PM (584046807)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 57F5DB7E-F55D-4287-B550-D7DB85D4662EMessage: Jesus!!!!Sender: e:jeeitunes@gmail.comTime: 07/05/19 12:14:24 PM (584046864)Flags: 1085445Is Read: NoIs Invitation: NoGUID: FFC163A3-94A4-4FA7-A210-9B0586E17CFCMessage: I think you meant. BudhhaSender:Time: 07/05/19 01:27:01 PM (584051221)Flags: 1060865Is Read: YesIs Invitation: NoGUID: 98C92041-A5A0-4490-9351-D4AA8AC96500Message: HaHOUSE OVERSIGHT 027791