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The Scowcroft Group
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From: Kevin Neater
Date: November 14, 2015
Terrorism - Metrojet and Paris Mark Externalization of ISIS Threat
It has been a consensus view in the US and Europe that the dangers posed by ISIS included metastasizing into other
Middle Eastern and African countries -- something that Turkey has already experienced and Saudi Arabia and others
likely face. Europe was believed to be at less risk, although as the flow of refugees from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan
increased, that risk has risen.
The US and everywhere else were thought to be tertiary targets, subject to opportunistic attacks but
almost a distraction to ISIS (cf. Al Qaeda), given its preoccupation with exploitation of Sunni/Shia
divisions and goal of regional territorial gains. Remember, ISIS' military leadership largely is drawn from
Sunnis who were a part of Saddam's military; they are motivated by revenge for how they have been treated by the
Shia-dominated post- Saddam Iraqi government.)
Last week's Metrojet bombing in Egypt, the suicide attacks Thursday in a Shiite neighborhood of
Beirut, and yesterday atrocities in Paris all demonstrate an unexpected level of sophistication and
effort. As a result, European countries and the US are likely to see an increase in incidents and threats that harken
back to Al Qaeda's early agenda or are comparable to the Black September and early Hezbollah attacks of the '70s.
What are the consequences?
• ISIS can be expected to undertake further spectacular attacks. It has eclipsed AQ in operational capability,
financing, and recruitment. It is not only the wealthiest terror group in history, but one with global reach
and ambitions. (The Obama Administration's claims that ISIS is contained now look naive, and that
characterization will haunt President Obama and Democrats next year.)
• Expect a significant uptick in ELI, US, and Russian engagement against ISIS in the Iraq/Syria theater, but
also in Europe. The failure to detect this elaborate scheme (no less complex because it was "low tech" -- so
was 9/11) will prompt European security and intelligence agencies to take a much more intrusive and
perhaps even confrontational approach both to indigenous Muslim groups and to arriving refugees. While
that risks a feed-back loop, the instinct will be to err on the side of immediate results, not impact on
radicalization as a social challenge.
• Germany and other ELI nations will have to re-examine their commitments to welcome more refugees from
the Middle East, and British opposition to allowing refugees, already strong, will harden. The scale of the
Paris attacks will energize right-wing politics and pressure center-left governments to make threat reduction
a higher priority than humanitarian concerns.
CD The Scowcroft Group
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• The universal horror at what happened in Paris is likely to strengthen the determination of countries
gathered in Vienna for the Syria conference to better coordinate and prosecute the campaign against ISIS in
Syria and Ira.
Bottom Line: Has risk to the United States increased? There are no indications yet that ISIS has changed its
approach here. It encourages radicalization and lone wolf attacks but has not mounted direct attacks. But the
Metrojet bombing has resulted in a stepped up global effort to secure American airlines. So too, targeting of
American institutions/events — it is unlikely a coincidence that an American band was playing at the site of the largest
causalities in Paris -- seems highly probable. This applies equally to American bases and facilities overseas, including
embassies.
CD The Scowcroft Group
WARNING: This document and the information contained herein are intended only for the personal and confidential
use of clients of The Scowcroft Group. If you are not an intended recipient of this document, you are hereby notified
that you have received this document in error and that any review, dissemination, distribution, copying, quotation, or
other use of this document without the prior approval of The Scowcroft Group is strictly prohibited.
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